How will the box office performance of Prometheus affect the chances of a sequel?

So, Prometheus has been on wide release around the world since the beginning of June, and with just a few countries left to see the movie, the hype-dust has just about settled.

Now seems like a good time to take a look at the box office performance, and see how this will affect the chances of a sequel.

At the time of writing, the movie is number one in a few countries, including the UK, but it’s normally the US box office performance that’s dissected, so that’s where we’ll start.

In the US, Prometheus opened to very good, but not stellar performance. Moreover, it was beaten by, of all things, Madagascar 3. Let’s look at the details.

Madagascar is of course a family film, which automatically gives it a MUCH wider audience than Prometheus. You could reasonably expect Prometheus to suffer badly. However, that’s not actually the case. Madagascar made $60,316,738 in its opening weekend, across 4258 screens, for a per-screen average of $14,166.

By contrast, Prometheus pulled in a lower $51,050,101, which looks bad. But that was on fewer screens – 3396 – giving it a higher per-screen average of $15,032.

So, with just under 80% of the number of screens that Madagascar 3 had, it takes nearly 85% of the money. Not bad at all, especially for an R-rated movie with an inherently much smaller audience.

That’s just opening weekend of course. How’s Prometheus doing now? Well, at the time of writing, the total worldwide box office currently stands at around $218m. That’s with an estimated budget of around $130, which is actually pretty modest, and compares well to Madagascar 3′s $145m (for an ANIMATED film!). Factor in those countries where the film is yet to be released, home video sales, TV rights, streaming & download rights, merch, soundtrack sales and so on, and Fox is surely looking at a tidy profit.

Scott and co have already publicly said that plans for a sequel story are already in place, and with the box office take heading in the right direction, I have a feeling we’ll hear word on a sequel pretty soon.

What’s not known of course, is when Scott might fit this in to his schedule – with The Councillor getting ready to film, and the Blade Runner sequel in active development, Prometheus may have to wait a couple of years. Of course Fox may make Scott an offer he can’t refuse to fast-track it, or he could shepherd the project as producer, but hand over the directorial duties to someone else.

Your thoughts, as always, are welcome!

Box office figures courtesy Box Office Mojo

Prometheus is directed by Ridley Scott, from a screenplay by Damon Lindelof and Jon Spaihts. The film stars Noomi Rapace, Michael Fassbender, Charlize Theron, Guy Pearce, Idris Elba, Sean Harris, Rafe Spall, Logan Marshall-Green, Patrick Wilson and Kate Dickie, and is now on release around the world.